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Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Recent polls position Die Linke as the frontrunner for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with 19–22% support in August surveys from Forsa, INSA, and Infratest dimap, ahead of the CDU (18–20%) and AfD (17–19%). Trader consensus reflects this momentum for Linke candidate Elif Eralp, alongside CDU weakness after incumbent mayor Kai Wegner withdrew following criticism of his handling of a January power outage, replaced by Stefan Evers. The AfD has shown gains in some mid-summer polling but remains sidelined from coalitions. The incumbent CDU-SPD government trails in projections, with the SPD at 12–15% and no clear majority path for the current pairing. Greens and smaller parties trail further, consistent with the low implied probabilities.