- 巴布-曼德布海峡在9月30日之前是否已被有效关闭？7¢
- 曼德海峡在8月31日前实际上已经关闭了吗？1¢
- 曼德布海峡在12月31日前被有效关闭？18¢
- 巴布-曼德布海峡到10月31日是否实际上已经关闭？11¢
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?3¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.
Houthi forces in Yemen, aligned with Iran’s Axis of Resistance, announced a targeted maritime blockade on Saudi-linked shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in July 2026 after the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed amid the broader 2026 Iran war. This followed Iranian preparations and Houthi deployments of missiles and drones near the chokepoint, with subsequent strikes on Saudi tankers and other vessels in the southern Red Sea. Traffic volumes dropped roughly 24% and stabilized at lower levels, though commercial transits continue and Houthis have described the measures as limited rather than a full closure. Ongoing attacks, including an August incident killing crew members, alongside Saudi responses and regional naval activity, sustain uncertainty over whether disruptions will escalate to effective operational closure for broader shipping.