- 2027 年前，巴西 STF 是否会有任何一位大法官遭弹劾免职？4¢4%
Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices face a high procedural threshold for removal, requiring a Senate supermajority of 54 votes out of 81 on crimes of responsibility, a bar never cleared in the court’s history. Recent congressional elections strengthened right-leaning blocs aligned with former President Bolsonaro’s allies to roughly 49 seats, still short of the threshold, while Senate President Davi Alcolumbre—expected to retain his post—has previously blocked more than 100 pending requests. Lula’s reelection and ongoing judicial reform debates, including rules limiting filings and raising early-stage quorums, further constrain momentum before the new Senate convenes in February 2027. Trader consensus on “no” removal by year-end reflects these structural and timing barriers. A rapid change in Senate leadership or an unforeseen scandal accelerating proceedings could still shift odds within the narrow window.
规则
如果巴西联邦最高法院（STF）的任何一名法官因弹劾或责任犯罪审判而被永久免职，且此事发生在 2026年12月31日 23:59 ET 之前，则该市场将判定为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 因任期限制、自愿辞职，或任何其他并非由弹劾或责任犯罪审判导致的原因离开法院的法官，均不予计入。 如果弹劾、责任犯罪审判、停职或其他程序措施并未导致巴西联邦最高法院的法官被永久免职，那么这些措施本身不足以判定该市场。 判定该市场的主要依据将是巴西政府的官方信息；不过，也可以采用可信新闻报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。