- 加拿大会在 2026年12月31日 前再次举行选举吗？5¢5%
Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney hold a slim majority in the House of Commons following the 2025 federal election and subsequent by-election gains plus floor crossings, giving them 173 of 343 seats as of mid-October 2026. Recent polling shows the party maintaining a double-digit lead over the Conservatives, reducing any immediate incentive for an early dissolution. The fixed-date election remains set for October 15, 2029, under the Canada Elections Act, and no confidence motion, supply defeat, or other procedural trigger has materialized. Provincial developments such as Alberta’s October 19 independence referendum and the Parti Québécois victory in Quebec have dominated recent headlines without spilling over into federal instability. Traders therefore price a low probability of Parliament being dissolved and a new election called before late 2026 or 2027, consistent with historical patterns for majority governments.
规则
如果加拿大下一次联邦选举正式安排在2029年10月之前举行，且在2026年12月31日 23:59 ET之前安排，本市场将判定为“是”。否则，本市场将以“否”结算。 本市场要结算为“是”，只需公布选举日期，无需选举实际在市场期限内举行。（例如，如果在2026年12月23日宣布选举定于2027年11月23日举行，本市场将结算为“是”。） 本市场结算的主要依据是加拿大政府的官方信息。不过，也会参考可信报道所形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。