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A by-election in the British Columbia electoral district of Abbotsford-Mission is scheduled to take place on September 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election to the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).
The Abbotsford-Mission by-election, scheduled for September 26 with nominations closing September 5, features BC Conservative Leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay against NDP candidate Pam Alexis in a riding that flipped Conservative in 2024. Trader pricing reflects a narrow contest shaped by Findlay's recent acclamation, an internal poll showing her ahead on the candidate matchup, and recent Conservative caucus departures that could affect turnout and momentum. Alexis's prior representation of the district and emphasis on health care and housing provide a base, while minor-party entries such as CentreBC's Lakhwinder Jhaj add potential vote fragmentation. Key upcoming factors include advance voting from September 18-23 and any late campaign developments that could widen or close the gap in this short writ period.