- 烏克蘭會在 2027年12月31日 前簽署歐盟加入條約嗎？16¢
Recent progress in Ukraine’s EU accession talks, including the October 2026 opening of two additional negotiation clusters on the internal market and competitiveness after Hungary lifted its veto, reflects continued reform momentum amid the ongoing conflict with Russia. Four of six clusters are now open, with the remaining two targeted by year-end, yet EU officials have ruled out membership as early as January 2027 and noted that full alignment on the acquis, judicial and anti-corruption benchmarks, and agricultural integration will require years. The merit-based process, combined with unanimous member-state approval for cluster closures and treaty signature, faces structural delays typical of prior enlargements. Trader consensus at 83.5% against a treaty by December 2027 aligns with these timelines and the war’s complicating effects on implementation.
規則
如果烏克蘭與歐盟在 2027年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前正式簽署加入條約，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，本市場將判定為「否」。 符合資格的加入條約，須為一項具約束力的協議，訂明烏克蘭未來可能加入歐盟的條件；這包括規定部分或有限成員資格，或對歐盟特定政策設有豁免、過渡期或例外安排的協議。此市場判定為「是」並不要求烏克蘭成為歐盟成員。此市場判定為「是。」並不要求歐盟成員國、烏克蘭議會或其他立法機構批准該協議。 初步協議、聯繫協定、框架協議，或僅有歐洲經濟區成員資格或潛在成員資格，均不符合資格。 主要判定依據為歐盟執委會、歐洲理事會或烏克蘭政府的官方公告；但亦可採用可信報導的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。