- 川普會在 2026年12月31日 之前辭職嗎？2¢2%
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 98.4% implied probability that Donald Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, driven by the historical rarity of presidential resignations outside exceptional circumstances such as the Nixon precedent and the lack of any verified public statements, party pressures, or institutional signals indicating intent to step down. With the resolution window extending through the remainder of the term, standard patterns of executive continuity and the absence of recent catalysts like health disclosures or major political developments reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical events, legal outcomes creating intense congressional pressure, or abrupt changes in administration dynamics, though none are currently confirmed.
規則
如果美國總統唐納·川普在 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 前宣布他已辭職或將辭去總統職務，這個市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 如果唐納·川普已不可能辭職或宣布辭職（例如因其他原因被免職等），這個市場將立即結算為「否」。 這個市場要結算為「是」，只需要川普宣布他已辭職或將辭職。他是否真的辭職，不會影響此市場的結算。 此市場結算的主要依據將是美國聯邦政府的官方資訊；不過，也會參考可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。