- 特朗普會在 2027 年前取得格陵蘭嗎？1¢1%
Recent diplomatic developments have solidified trader expectations that no transfer of Greenland's sovereignty to the United States will occur before 2027. A September 2026 trilateral security agreement, ratified by Greenland's parliament in early November, expands U.S. military access, permits new defense areas and facilities such as elements of the Golden Dome system, and excludes adversaries from sensitive investments while explicitly reaffirming Danish sovereignty and Greenland's right to self-determination. Denmark's parliament is scheduled to complete its review later in November. Consistent public statements from Danish and Greenlandic leaders rejecting any sale or annexation, combined with the limited time remaining before the market's December 31, 2026 resolution window, underpin the 98.8% implied probability on No. A sudden reversal in Copenhagen or Nuuk positions remains the primary low-probability pathway that could still shift the outcome.
規則
如果美國在 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 前正式宣布格陵蘭將歸美國主權管轄，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，本市場將判定為「否」。 主權是指格陵蘭的大部分領土，從目前作為丹麥王國內自治領土的地位，轉為由美國正式治理或管轄，不論其在美國體制下被歸類為州、領土或其他類別。 美國與丹麥正式宣布格陵蘭將歸美國主權管轄，即符合條件，即使主權尚未實際移轉亦然。只有正式協議或行動的公告（例如行政命令、已簽署的法案等）才會計入；僅在社群媒體發布貼文則不計入。 此市場的判定依據為美國、格陵蘭及丹麥政府的官方資訊；不過，可信報導一致確認格陵蘭已歸美國主權管轄，也符合條件。
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