- 伊朗政權會在2027年前垮台嗎？8¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience after the 2025–2026 conflict, leadership succession following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death, and brutal suppression of early-2026 nationwide protests underpin the 92.5% implied probability that it will not fall before 2027. Security forces showed no major defections despite military setbacks, economic collapse, and mass unrest across all provinces, enabling rapid consolidation under Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC figures. Recent U.S. sanctions expansions in August 2026, aimed at isolating the economy and secondary targets, intensify pressure but have prompted Iranian warnings of retaliation without immediate institutional fracture. Traders view the regime’s coercive apparatus and nationalist consolidation as likely to sustain control through the remainder of 2026 absent unprecedented elite splits or coordinated defections.