- 伊朗政權會在9月30日前倒台嗎？2¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, and survival through subsequent military exchanges with Israel and the United States have anchored trader expectations. Recent weeks have seen a military-led consolidation of authority, with public displays of a seven-man junta and limited visibility of clerical figures, alongside fresh U.S. sanctions targeting economic pressure. Major protest waves earlier in 2026 were suppressed without triggering elite defections or institutional breakdown, and the rial's ongoing decline has not produced coordinated unrest capable of forcing regime change. With only weeks remaining before the September 30 resolution date, the absence of verifiable triggers for sudden collapse within this compressed window underpins the 98.5% implied probability on "No." Unlikely but possible shifts could stem from an unforeseen leadership crisis or rapid escalation producing internal fractures before the deadline.