- 俄羅斯會在 2026 年入侵另一個國家嗎？7¢
- 截至2027年12月31日，俄羅斯會入侵另一個國家嗎？19¢
Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine remain the dominant factor shaping trader views on the risk of a new invasion elsewhere by late 2026. President Putin recently declared the establishment of a non-negotiable "security zone" spanning roughly 660 km inside Ukraine along the border, explicitly ruling out concessions in any talks and tying the move to prior Ukrainian actions in Kursk. This occurs alongside intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and reports of Ukrainian advances in select sectors. Concurrently, Russian drone incidents have affected airspace and vessels in Moldova, Romania, and Bulgaria, prompting NATO members to heighten alerts and request additional defensive support. Intelligence assessments highlight Moscow's hybrid activities and long-term scenario planning involving Poland and the Baltics, though Russian officials continue to state no intent to attack NATO territory. NATO commanders have outlined updated contingency plans focused on blocking and blunting potential advances. These developments, set against Russia's resource commitments in Ukraine, inform assessments of escalation thresholds and timelines.
規則
如果俄羅斯在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前發動軍事攻勢，意圖控制任何聯合國會員國（烏克蘭除外）領土的任何部分，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 就本市場而言，在市場建立時由任何聯合國會員國實際控制的土地，將視為該國的主權領土。 本市場的結算依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。