- Mitch McConnell 會在任期結束前卸下參議員職務嗎？3¢3%
McConnell’s February 2025 announcement that he would not seek reelection and would serve out his term through January 2027 remains the dominant factor behind the 96.4% “No” probability. With only weeks left before the term expires and his successor, Rep. Andy Barr, already elected in the November 2026 midterms, traders see minimal incentive or procedural path for an early resignation. Recent developments, including McConnell’s September 2026 return to the Senate floor after a June hospitalization and fall, plus his post-election public statement committing to a smooth transition, have reinforced expectations that he will complete his duties. The only realistic shifts would involve a sudden acute health event or unforeseen personal circumstance forcing resignation in the final weeks, though no such indicators have emerged.
規則
如果 Mitch McConnell 正式宣布有意辭職，或以其他方式在其現任任期預定結束前（2027年1月3日，下午11:59 ET）離開其美國參議院席位，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 公告只有在表明 McConnell 將於其任期預定結束前離職時，才符合條件。重申既有計畫、表示將於任期結束時退休的聲明不符合條件。 主要判定依據將是 Mitch McConnell、其辦公室或代表的官方聲明，及／或美國參議院或政府的官方通訊。
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