- 伊朗會將同性婚姻合法化嗎？1¢1%
Iran’s Islamic Penal Code, grounded in Sharia principles since the 1979 Revolution, criminalizes all same-sex conduct with penalties ranging from flogging to execution and provides no legal recognition for same-sex partnerships or marriage. No legislative proposals, policy shifts, or official statements indicating movement toward legalization have emerged in recent years. Trader consensus at 98.3% for “No” reflects this entrenched framework, where constitutional and religious institutions prioritize traditional marriage definitions. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a major political transition, sustained external diplomatic pressure prompting reforms, or internal reinterpretation of religious law, though such changes would require overcoming significant structural and institutional barriers within the current system.
規則
如果伊朗政府在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 之前，於伊朗境內任何地方依法承認兩名同性人士的婚姻，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 法律承認是指任何法律、憲法修正案或具約束力的司法裁決，允許兩名同性成年人結婚，並依伊朗法律享有與異性婚姻相同的法律地位。 該承認必須適用於伊朗法律體系內，並允許同性伴侶締結合法有效且獲伊朗民事或宗教主管機關承認的婚姻。該承認必須在所列截止期限前生效。 使民事結合、同居伴侶關係或其他不授予婚姻法律地位的有限承認形式合法化，不符合條件。 承認在國外締結的婚姻，但不允許在伊朗境內締結此類婚姻，不符合條件。 主要判定依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
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