Claude's service reliability underpins the market's strong lean toward minimal downtime. Official status data through November 10 shows all components operational, with 90-day uptime averaging 99.7–99.86% across claude.ai, the API, and related platforms. The only November incident so far—a 26-minute degraded performance event on November 8 for the Fable 5.1 model—fits the pattern of brief, resolved issues rather than extended outages. Recent months reinforce this track record: October saw roughly a dozen short incidents (mostly 30–240 minutes of elevated errors or degraded performance on connectors and models), while September incidents were similarly contained. No full-day outages have been reported in November, and Anthropic continues to demonstrate rapid mitigation through infrastructure on AWS and other platforms. Traders price the <5 days bucket highest because cumulative downtime has historically remained low even during active development cycles. The 5–7 day range captures modest room for additional minor events, while probabilities above 8 days stay thin given the absence of systemic risks or major scaling disruptions. Upcoming model releases or connector updates could introduce short-lived volatility, but the current operational baseline favors limited total impact for the month.
本市場將根據 2026 年 11 月 Claude (claude.ai) 發生任何服務中斷的天數結算。 若 Claude Status 的 claude.ai 元件歷史正常運作時間頁面(https://status.claude.com/uptime/)在當日狀態方塊定案後,顯示該日的狀態方塊為綠色以外的任何顏色,則視為 Claude 在該日發生服務中斷。claude.ai 以外的 Claude 元件每日狀態方塊不會影響本市場的結算。 若隔日的狀態方塊顯示為非灰色(灰色用於尚未開始的日期),則該日視為已定案。 指定月份的最後一天定案後,本市場即會結算。如果指定月份的最後一天在指定月份之後第 7 個日曆日(ET)結束前仍未定案,本市場將根據截至該時已定案的日期結算。 本市場結算的主要依據為 Claude Status 的 claude.ai 元件歷史正常運作時間頁面(https://status.claude.com/uptime/)。
機器翻譯。如有爭議,以原文為準。