- 到2026年12月底，Google會擁有最好的AI模型嗎？8¢
- 到2026年12月底，OpenAI會擁有最好的人工智慧模型嗎？7¢
- Z.ai 會在 2026 年 12 月底擁有最強的 AI 模型嗎？<1¢
- 到2026年12月底，DeepSeek會擁有最好的人工智慧模型嗎？<1¢
- Mistral 會在 2026 年 12 月底擁有最好的人工智慧模型嗎？<1¢
- 微軟會在2026年12月底擁有最好的AI模型嗎？<1¢
- 亞馬遜在2026年12月底會擁有最好的人工智慧模型嗎？<1¢
- 字節跳動會在2026年12月底擁有最好的AI模型嗎？<1¢
- Anthropic 在 2026 年 12 月底會擁有最好的人工智慧模型嗎？70¢
- 到2026年12月底時，阿里巴巴會擁有最好的人工智慧模型嗎？<1¢
- 到2026年12月底，xAI會擁有最好的人工智慧模型嗎？12¢
- 到2026年12月底時，Moonshot會擁有最好的AI模型嗎？1¢
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Anthropic’s dominant position on independent leaderboards drives the 69.5% implied probability, as its Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 large language models lead August 2026 rankings in overall intelligence, coding, and agentic benchmarks. Multiple recent releases from competitors—including xAI’s Grok 4.6 in mid-August, Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash, Z.ai’s GLM-5.3, and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants—have narrowed gaps on specific tasks but have not displaced Anthropic’s top cluster. With only four months remaining until year-end resolution, traders appear to view sustained frontier performance in reasoning and real-world capability metrics as the decisive factor, while lower odds for OpenAI, Google, and Meta reflect their trailing benchmark results despite ongoing model updates.