- 中國會在2026年底前入侵台灣嗎？4¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Traders assign a 96.3% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting the brief remaining window and the continued pattern of gray-zone pressure rather than preparations for large-scale amphibious operations. Beijing has sustained daily military aircraft incursions, coast-guard patrols east of Taiwan, and live-fire drills in the strait through August 2026, while Xi Jinping has reiterated unification as a historic mission without renouncing force. Taipei has responded with record defense budgets exceeding $35 billion for 2027, expanded combat-readiness exercises, and measures to harden critical infrastructure. Significant logistical, economic, and deterrence barriers, including potential third-party involvement, continue to constrain escalation timelines. Late developments such as abrupt shifts in cross-strait signaling or external diplomatic moves could still alter assessments before year-end.