The November 3, 2026 midterms, in which Democrats gained control of both chambers of Congress, removed a key barrier for potential 2028 contenders and opened the window for announcements before 2027. No major-party figure has yet filed with the Federal Election Commission or launched a campaign, consistent with historical patterns in which the first serious bids typically appear between one week and four months after midterms. Several high-profile names, including Vice President JD Vance, former Vice President Kamala Harris, Governor Gavin Newsom, Senator Cory Booker, and Governor Josh Shapiro, have left the door open or signaled post-election decisions, with some expecting clarity by early January. Exploratory activity, such as draft committees, has begun for figures like Representative Ro Khanna, while others have ruled out runs. Traders are monitoring polling leads, fundraising starts, and scheduled statements for the first major declarations.
如果所列人士在 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 前正式宣布將參選 2028 年美國總統選舉,角逐美國總統,則此市場將判定為「是」。否則,此市場將判定為「否」。 所列人士的宣布即足以使本市場判定為「是」,無論其是否實際提交參選提名,或是否會在未來提交參選提名。 本市場判定的主要依據為所列人士的官方聲明(例如透過演講、社群媒體等);但也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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