- US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?3¢
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify. Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Recent revocation of the June 2026 General License X waiver, which briefly authorized Iranian crude, petrochemical, and petroleum sales through August 21 amid U.S.-Iran peace talks, now drives trader focus on potential reissuance. The July revocation followed tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, restoring sanctions and limiting Iran's access to dollar-denominated revenue estimated at $8-10 billion during the prior exemption. Broader context includes multiple 2026 temporary waivers tied to energy supply pressures and interim agreements, against a backdrop of elevated global oil benchmarks and Treasury enforcement on shadow fleet activity. Key upcoming catalysts include any FOMC-adjacent geopolitical signals or renewed diplomatic milestones before month-end deadlines that could shift implied probabilities in related energy and sanctions markets.