- 美國會在12月31日之前承認 Machado 是委內瑞拉的領導人嗎？5¢5%
U.S. policy continues to back interim President Delcy Rodríguez for stability and economic recovery after the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, including resumed diplomatic ties and oil agreements. Trader consensus at 96.7% against U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as leader by December 31 reflects the absence of any shift toward installing her despite her reaffirmed opposition leadership in mid-October and calls for elections. Washington has prioritized gradual transition talks with Rodríguez's government over rapid leadership changes, consistent with statements praising her role and sidelining Machado from negotiations. Late developments such as a sudden diplomatic reversal or major crisis could still alter the outcome before year-end, though current evidence shows no such trajectory.
規則
如果 Trump 政府在 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 前宣布美國正式承認 Maria Corina Machado 為委內瑞拉領導人，則此市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 可能符合委內瑞拉領導人身分的職位包括但不限於「國家元首」、「總統」，或其他能賦予她在委內瑞拉領土內主要行政權力的類似職位。 符合資格的美國聲明必須直接且毫無保留。附帶條件、假設性、表達支持或暗示性的聲明均不計入。 本市場的主要結算來源將是美國政府與唐納·川普的官方資訊，但也會參考可信報導所形成的共識。
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