- 美國會在 12月31日 前取得伊朗的濃縮鈾嗎？3¢3%
US-Iran diplomacy centers on Iran's estimated 440 kilograms of up to 60% enriched uranium that survived or remains unaccounted for after 2025 strikes on Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Recent Qatari-mediated proposals emphasize IAEA-supervised down-blending on Iranian soil or transfer to a third country as trust-building steps tied to sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz reopening, rather than physical removal to US control. Iran has repeatedly rejected exporting the material, while US officials including Vice President JD Vance have called for verifiable capacity reductions and inspector access. Negotiations continue following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, with no confirmed transfer mechanism or timeline that would result in US possession by year-end. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and the preference for phased diplomatic concessions over direct acquisition.
規則
如果美國政府或軍方在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 之前正式宣布或確認已取得任何數量、先前由伊朗控制的濃縮鈾，本市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 「持有」是指美國實際保管或控制該濃縮鈾，無論其存放在美國境內或其他地方。若公告內容是美國將於日後取得伊朗濃縮鈾的持有權，無論是交易、協議、承諾或計畫，均不符合條件。 符合條件的伊朗濃縮鈾持有權可透過任何方式取得，包括經協議移交或扣押。 若可信報導普遍形成共識，認為美國已取得伊朗濃縮鈾的持有權，即使美國沒有正式公告，也符合結算為「是」的條件。 本市場的主要結算依據為美國政府的官方資訊；但也可採用可信報導普遍形成的共識。
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