- 美國會在 2026年12月31日 之前試射核武器嗎？5¢
U.S. nuclear testing remains constrained by the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992, with the National Nuclear Security Administration relying on science-based stockpile stewardship and subcritical experiments to certify weapons without explosive detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China prompted internal planning documents targeting potential action before 2028, yet NNSA and military leaders have reiterated no technical or military requirement exists. A September-October 2026 non-nuclear chemical high-explosive experiment at the Nevada National Security Site focused on refining detection of low-yield or decoupled foreign tests rather than advancing U.S. detonation capabilities. Congressional resistance, including Democratic efforts to block related funding and commitments from nominees against unnecessary tests, combined with 6–36 month preparation timelines, has kept trader-implied probabilities low for any test by late 2026.
規則
如果美國在所列日期（ET）或之前進行核試驗，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 核試驗的定義是：美國蓄意引爆一種非戰鬥用途的裝置，並產生核連鎖反應（核分裂或核融合），不論其當量為何。 意外事故、放射性散布裝置（使用傳統炸藥散布放射性物質的炸彈，例如「髒彈」），或第三方的行動，均不納入此市場的判定。 美國未明確承認的試驗仍可能符合條件，前提是可信報導形成明確共識，將該核爆歸因於美國。例如，如果可信報導將其歸因於美國，那麼類似於 1979 年「Vela Incident」且未獲承認的核試驗也會計入。 此市場的判定依據將是可信報導所形成的廣泛共識。
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