- 烏克蘭會在2027年前與俄羅斯簽署和平協議嗎？8¢
Russia’s insistence on achieving its full territorial objectives, including control over remaining areas of Donbas, has stalled all recent diplomatic efforts and underpins trader expectations that no comprehensive peace agreement will be reached before 2027. In October 2026, U.S. attempts to revive talks through an energy ceasefire announcement and sanctions relief on Russian diesel exports produced no Russian concessions, with Moscow rejecting immediate negotiations and continuing strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Kremlin statements emphasize a comprehensive settlement over temporary measures such as ceasefires, while Ukrainian officials signal openness to de-escalation steps but reject further territorial concessions. Ongoing battlefield dynamics and the absence of aligned incentives between the parties sustain the current trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability for “No.” Shifts could occur only through major battlefield reversals or sustained external pressure altering Moscow’s terms.
規則
如果烏克蘭在 2026年12月31日, 下午11:59 ET 前簽署任何書面文件（例如條約、停火／休戰協議、框架／「路線圖」、換文，或經調解達成的協議文本），且該文件：(i) 將烏克蘭與俄羅斯聯邦都列為當事方；並且 (ii) 結束敵對行動／建立停火，或承諾雙方按照明確程序推動終結戰爭（即明訂和平／關係正常化為目標，並列出原則、步驟及／或時間表），本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 只要求烏克蘭簽署；不要求俄羅斯簽署或批准。 局部、臨時或針對特定議題的安排——例如限制空襲或避免衝突的協議、人道暫停、撤離通道、戰俘交換或貿易／出口安排、邊界／非軍事區調整，或僅限於特定地區、戰線／前線或市鎮的停火——均不符合條件。 文件必須附有獲授權的烏克蘭代表親筆墨水簽名，或由官方核發的電子簽名。未簽署的協議（例如 2023 年的 Ohrid 安排）均不符合條件，無論其是否已透過其他方式正式生效。 主要判定依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。