- 烏克蘭的和平公投會在 2027 年前通過嗎？4¢
Ukraine's ongoing martial law prohibits referendums and elections, while constitutional rules require a nationwide vote with high turnout thresholds and millions of signatures to authorize any territorial changes in a peace settlement. Recent polling shows majority support for a referendum in principle and conditional openness to concessions with security guarantees, yet no ceasefire has materialized amid stalled talks, continued strikes, and Russian insistence on maximalist terms. Traders' 96.2% "No" consensus reflects these procedural and diplomatic barriers within the short window to 2027. A verified ceasefire followed by rapid legislative adjustments and verified signature collection could still enable resolution before the deadline.
規則
如果截至 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET，烏克蘭正式通過了關於俄烏戰爭的和平公投，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 俄烏戰爭的和平公投，指任何與俄烏戰爭和平相關，或與旨在結束戰爭的和平協議相關的全國性投票。 若全國有效投票中有過半數支持該提案，則符合條件的公投將視為通過。其後對公投合法性提出的法律質疑或其他質疑，不會影響本市場的判定。 本市場判定的主要依據為烏克蘭政府的官方資訊；不過，也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。