- 烏克蘭和平公投會在12月31日前安排好嗎？7¢
Ukrainian law requires a nationwide referendum for any territorial concessions in a peace agreement with Russia, and recent polls show 68% public support for such a vote to ratify terms. President Zelensky has signaled readiness for both elections and a referendum contingent on a ceasefire plus security guarantees, yet Russia has rejected proposals for even a 60-day truce and insists on a comprehensive deal instead. Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks remain stalled amid disputes over Donbas control and legitimacy issues, with no official scheduling announced despite constitutional thresholds for voter signatures. These barriers, combined with active martial law restrictions, underpin traders' low implied probability that a qualifying peace referendum will be scheduled in the near term.
規則
如果烏俄戰爭和平公投於 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前在烏克蘭正式排定，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 俄烏戰爭的和平公投，指任何與俄烏戰爭和平相關，或與旨在結束戰爭的和平協議相關的全國性投票。 只有在具有相關法律管轄權的烏克蘭政府主管機關正式排定公投日期並公開宣布後，才視為該公投已排定。 符合資格的公投一經排定，本市場即判定為「是」。其後對公投正當性的法律挑戰或其他質疑，均不會影響本市場的判定。 本市場判定的主要依據為烏克蘭政府的官方資訊；不過，也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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