- 特朗普會在 2026 年前往太空嗎？2¢2%
No official plans, announcements, or preparations exist for President Trump to participate in any crewed spaceflight during 2026, driving the 98.2% implied probability that the outcome will not occur. Recent administration actions emphasize commercial launch growth, Artemis program milestones such as Artemis II and IV timelines, and regulatory streamlining via FAA and NASA initiatives, with focus remaining on policy leadership and contractor support rather than personal astronaut participation. At age 80, structural barriers including medical screening, mission training demands, and national security protocols further reduce feasibility absent extraordinary developments. Late-breaking shifts could still arise from a ceremonial suborbital flight on a commercial vehicle or rapid policy pivot tied to diplomatic or electoral events within the resolution window.
規則
若唐納·川普於2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET或之前，身處任何抵達或越過美國太空界線的航空器或太空船上，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 美國太空門檻的定義是平均海平面以上 50 英里。唐納·川普是否越過國際公認的卡門線，不會影響本市場的結算。 此市場結算的主要依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。