- 霍爾木茲海峽的交通將於9月30日前恢復正常？6¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and associated security risks continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to roughly 6-10% of pre-February 2026 levels, with AIS data showing only single-digit daily transits in recent weeks amid Iranian and U.S. enforcement actions, projectile incidents, and mine threats. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of 10-40 times normal rates, rendering standard commercial voyages uneconomic and prompting rerouting or idling of vessels, while selective U.S.-facilitated movements have not restored free-flow conditions. This sustained disruption, persisting well beyond the brief late-June rebound that collapsed amid renewed strikes and sanctions, underpins the market's 94.5% implied probability against normalization by September 30. A rapid diplomatic de-escalation or comprehensive ceasefire could still alter the trajectory before resolution.