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- Benedita da Silva會在2026年里約熱內盧參議院選舉中獲得最多票數嗎？63¢
- 卡洛斯·喬迪會在2026年里約熱內盧參議院選舉中獲得最多選票嗎？28¢
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- Marcelo Crivella會在2026年里約熱內盧參議院選舉中獲得最多選票嗎？4¢
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The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Recent Datafolha polling released August 21 shows Benedita da Silva (PT) leading Senate vote intentions in Rio de Janeiro at 15 percent, well ahead of a fragmented field where Carlos Jordy and Carlos Portinho (both PL) sit at 8 percent each, followed by Marcelo Crivella, Pedro Paulo, and Mônica Benício at 6 percent. With two seats at stake on October 4 and over 35 percent undecided or blank, traders price Benedita’s first-place probability highest due to her broad coalition support and name recognition. The remaining candidates’ lower odds reflect technical ties, limited individual momentum, and the risk that votes split across the 16-candidate slate, leaving the outcome sensitive to late campaign shifts or turnout patterns among key voting blocs.