- 共和黨會贏得 NY-24 的眾議院席位嗎？96¢
- 民主黨會贏得眾議院中屬於 NY-24 的席位嗎？2¢
Incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney maintains a commanding lead in the NY-24 House race due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, evidenced by double-digit margins in recent presidential voting and its Solid Republican rating from forecasters. Her established constituent services record, including over $49 million returned in benefits this year, reinforces incumbency advantages ahead of the November 3 general election. Democrat Alissa Ellman, an Afghanistan veteran who won her June primary, focuses on veterans’ healthcare and affordability but trails significantly in fundraising. An October 20 debate offers limited opportunity to shift dynamics in a district where structural and historical factors favor the Republican nominee. Late developments such as scandals or turnout surges could theoretically narrow the gap, though current conditions point to a wide margin.
規則
本市場將根據在 2026 年期中選舉中贏得美國眾議院 NY-24 國會選區席次的候選人所屬政黨進行結算。期中選舉將於 2026年11月3日 舉行。 候選人的政黨歸屬，將以該候選人在本市場的結算資訊來源明確判定 2026 年所有眾議院選舉結果時，在選票上列明或以其他方式可確認的政黨隸屬關係為準。若候選人的選票上未列明其屬於民主黨或共和黨，則將依據本市場判定來源對所有眾議院選舉作出最終判定時，該候選人最近一次表示有意加入其黨團會議的政黨，將其視為該黨的成員。 本市場將根據可信報導所形成共識指出的選舉結果結算。如有任何歧義，本市場將僅依據美國政府公布的官方結果判定，具體而言，以聯邦選舉委員會（https://www.fec.gov/）公布的結果為準。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。