- 2027 年前的北約條款 5？3¢3%
Russia's ongoing hybrid operations against NATO members—including drone incursions, sabotage, and airspace violations—have intensified in 2026 without crossing into direct conventional attacks on alliance territory, reinforcing trader consensus that Article 5 invocation remains unlikely before 2027. NATO leaders continue to signal robust collective defense through updated military plans and reaffirmed commitments, while Moscow has calibrated its actions to test resolve without triggering full alliance response. Recent diplomatic efforts around Ukraine negotiations and persistent shortfalls in aid further underscore the focus on containing rather than expanding the conflict. Although hybrid incidents could produce casualties or miscalculations that alter thresholds, the current pattern of calibrated pressure and alliance preparedness sustains the elevated probability assigned to no invocation.
規則
如果任何 NATO 成員國在 2025年11月5日 至 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 之間的任何時間援引《北大西洋公約》第 5 條，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 本市場的主要判定依據將是 NATO（nato.int）的官方資訊；不過，可信媒體的共識也足以作為判定依據。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。