- 全國普選票協議會在2028年選舉前實施嗎？30¢30%
Recent Democratic trifectas in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada following the 2026 midterms have created a legislative pathway to add 61 electoral votes to the existing 222 in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, potentially exceeding the 270 threshold needed for activation ahead of 2028. Lawmakers in those states have begun discussing introduction of joining legislation in 2027 sessions. However, enactment requires passage through both chambers and gubernatorial approval in each, a process that failed in Michigan during its prior Democratic control and faced veto in Nevada previously. Republican opposition, including constitutional challenges under the Compact Clause and questions over congressional consent, plus the tight timeline to meet the July 2028 cutoff, sustain trader consensus favoring non-implementation at 71 percent.
規則
如果截至 2028年11月6日 下午11:59 ET，已將《全國普選票州際協定》制定為法律的各州及哥倫比亞特區合計擁有過半數選舉人票，則本市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 本市場將考慮所有同時將《全國普選票州際協議》制定為法律、並意圖使其對2028年總統選舉生效的司法管轄區。選舉人票總數以結算日期生效的選舉人分配為依據。如果某司法管轄區已廢除該協議或退出該協議，以致不再是成員，則不計入統計。針對該協議整體或任何州實施該協議的禁制令或其他法律行動，與本市場的結算無關。 主要結算來源將是各州官方立法紀錄和National Popular Vote組織的狀態頁面（https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/state-status）；不過，也可以採用可信報導的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。