- 穆傑塔巴·哈米尼會在10月31日前公開露面嗎？1¢1%
- 穆傑塔巴·哈米尼會在12月31日前公開露面嗎？18¢18%
Mojtaba Khamenei has issued only written statements since his March 2026 appointment as Supreme Leader following his father’s death in February strikes, with no verified video, audio, or public sighting amid ongoing regional conflict. Iranian officials, including the judiciary chief and parliament speaker in late October, report private meetings and describe him as healthy and in command, citing security protocols that limit exposure. A diplomat recently claimed he attended his father’s July funeral and occasionally joins demonstrations at night. These factors sustain trader consensus around very low near-term probabilities for a public appearance, as the combination of assassination risks and regime preference for controlled communications outweighs reassurances without visual confirmation. Any shift would likely require a major diplomatic breakthrough or regime event within the resolution window.
規則
如果在市場建立至所列日期（ET）期間，有人拍攝伊朗最高領袖穆傑塔巴·哈梅內伊的照片或影片，該市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 此市場要判定為「是」，照片或影片必須在此市場的時間範圍內拍攝並發布。照片或影片必須是真實的。檔案資料、先前錄製的影像、重複使用的照片、經數位修改的內容、AI 生成媒體、擺拍重現，或任何身後發布的內容均不符合資格。 數位露面，包括直播，均計入本市場。 該市場的結算來源將是穆傑塔巴·哈梅內伊的照片／影片，以及可信報導對其真偽所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。