- 社民黨能否獲得至少31%的所有有效第二選票？100¢
- SPD 會贏得所有有效第二選票的 28% 到 31% 嗎？0¢
- 社民黨在所有有效第二選票中，得票率是否會介於25%到28%之間？0¢
- SPD 在所有有效第二選票中，得票率會低於 25% 嗎？0¢
The SPD secured 35.5% of the vote in the September 20, 2026, Landtag election, well above the 31% threshold and aligning with final-week polling that showed recovery into the mid-30s. Incumbent Minister-President Manuela Schwesig’s personal standing, high turnout at 78.1%, and targeted mobilization among traditional supporters helped limit losses to roughly four points from the 2021 result despite the AfD’s advance to 38.2%. Late surveys from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Infratest dimap consistently placed the SPD in a range that made sub-31% outcomes improbable, reflecting the party’s entrenched position in the state. No material recount or certification issues have emerged that would alter this outcome.
規則
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).