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Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader pricing for the September 2026 State Duma election due to its status as the dominant incumbent, extensive regional machinery, and mixed electoral system that favors established parties in both party-list and single-member districts. Recent party congresses, presidential endorsement of its updated program through 2031, and inclusion of war veterans on candidate lists have reinforced this positioning ahead of the three-day vote. State-affiliated polls from FOM and WCIOM show United Russia well ahead, though support has softened modestly amid economic pressures. New People has gained visibility as the main alternative in some surveys and candidate activity, yet structural barriers and limited opposition participation keep its implied probability far behind. Yabloko’s recent disqualification and ballot-position controversies further consolidate the competitive landscape around the ruling party.