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Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Recent polls ahead of the September 20 election show the SPD consistently placing second behind the leading AfD, with support in the 28-32% range across Infratest dimap and Forsa surveys conducted in late August and early September. This positioning reflects the SPD’s gains of several points since earlier 2026 readings, driven by the visibility of incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig and the party’s role in the current state government. Other parties, including the Linke at around 11%, the CDU near 8-10%, and the Greens and BSW at or below 5%, trail further back and show limited momentum in the final weeks. With the vote only weeks away, trader consensus reflects the stability of these polling trends and the low likelihood of late shifts that would alter second-place ordering.