- Lisa Murkowski 會在 2026 年退出共和黨嗎？12¢12%
Sen. Lisa Murkowski remains a Republican member of the U.S. Senate from Alaska with her current term extending through January 2029. Recent reporting from mid-October 2026 highlights her anticipated rise in Senate GOP committee leadership on panels such as Health, Education, Labor and Pensions or Appropriations, reflecting institutional positioning within the party rather than any move toward independence. Official records and voting tallies continue to list her as Republican, with participation in majority roll calls and no public statements or filings signaling a party switch by year-end. Earlier 2025 comments about hypothetical independent caucusing were followed by her explicit rejection of a full party change, and no comparable developments have emerged in 2026 to alter that stance. Traders’ 93% probability on “No” aligns with this continuity in her official affiliation and Senate role.
規則
如果 Lisa Murkowski 在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 之前離開共和黨，或宣布將離開共和黨，本市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 在本市場期限內，Murkowski 正式宣布將離開共和黨、加入另一個政黨或成為無黨籍人士，即足以將本市場判定為「是」；無論宣布的政黨轉換預定何時生效，也無論 Murkowski 是否打算繼續與共和黨共同組成黨團，皆不影響判定。 本市場判定的主要依據將是 Lisa Murkowski 的官方資訊；不過，也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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