- Kim Jong Un 會在 2026年12月31日 前不再擔任北韓最高領導人嗎？3¢
North Korea’s tightly controlled political system and absence of any verified developments pointing to leadership change underpin trader consensus that Kim Jong Un will remain Supreme Leader through year-end. Recent party charter revisions have further formalized his authority over appointments and institutions, while state media shows him actively overseeing missile tests, naval drills, and diplomatic engagements into October 2026. Succession signals center on grooming his daughter rather than any transition or removal. With only weeks left before the December 31, 2026 resolution date, the short timeframe leaves little room for sudden shifts absent an unforeseen health crisis, elite purge, or major external shock.
規則
如果 Kim Jong Un 在市場建立至指定日期（ET）之間的任何一段時間內不再擔任北韓最高領導人，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 如果在此市場結束日期前宣布 Kim Jong Un 辭職或遭免職，此市場將立即判定為「是」，無論宣布的辭職或免職何時生效。 如果指定人士遭到拘留、實際上被撤離指定職位，或在本市場的時間範圍內以其他方式被永久阻止履行指定職位的職責，則符合結算為「是」的條件。 此市場的判定依據將是 Kim Jong Un 和北韓政府的官方資訊；但也可以採用可信報導的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。