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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes, established continuity amid wartime pressures from the IRGC and regime survival needs. Trader sentiment on near-term leadership change remains low because Mojtaba has not appeared publicly since the strikes, prompting reports of injury or limited capacity and a shift toward collective interim governance involving the president, judiciary chief, and IRGC elements. Recent July–September 2026 developments, including ongoing questions from some clerics about his managerial role and Israel’s explicit threats against any successor, reinforce uncertainty without triggering immediate removal. Key variables include potential further military escalation, internal factional negotiations, and any confirmed health or authority shifts that could activate the Assembly of Experts process before mid-2027 resolution windows.