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Mojtaba Khamenei was selected Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli strikes that opened the current conflict. Recent diplomatic signals, including coordination on a Strait of Hormuz reopening proposal and rejection of immediate de-escalation demands, indicate the new leader maintains authority despite health speculation and reported internal strains within the clerical and security establishments. The Revolutionary Guards' backing and the Assembly's rapid appointment have supported continuity, while stalled negotiations and ongoing military pressure limit near-term shifts. Trader consensus prices further leadership change as low probability through late 2026, rising modestly into 2027, reflecting the system's institutional mechanisms for succession and the absence of verified challenges to Mojtaba's position in the past month.
規則
如果伊朗最高領袖穆傑塔巴·哈米尼在市場建立至所列日期（ET）之間的任何時間不再是伊朗的實際領導人，此市場將結算為 "是"。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 若穆傑塔巴·哈米尼被罷黜、遭拘留，或以其他方式失去職位，或在此市場的時間範圍內被阻止以伊朗實際領導人的身分行事，則視為他不再是伊朗的實際領導人。 若官方宣布穆傑塔巴·哈米尼辭職或遭免職，無論公告所述的離任何時生效，都將符合結算為 "是" 的條件。 此市場結算的主要依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。