- 印度會在 2026年12月31日 前攻擊巴基斯坦嗎？11¢
Tensions between India and Pakistan remain elevated following the May 2025 Operation Sindoor airstrikes, which India launched in response to a Pahalgam terror attack attributed to Pakistan-based groups, and the subsequent U.S.-brokered ceasefire that ended four days of exchanges. Trader consensus currently prices a low probability of another Indian drone, missile, or air strike on Pakistani territory by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of a major new trigger such as a large-scale attack from Pakistan. Ongoing low-level ceasefire violations along the Line of Control, isolated border incidents involving civilians, extended Pakistani airspace restrictions on Indian flights, and pointed exchanges at the United Nations continue to sustain friction without crossing into broader military action. India has reiterated that any future terror incident originating from Pakistani soil would be treated as an act of war, while diplomatic channels and the current de-escalation framework limit immediate escalation risks through the end of the resolution window.
規則
如果印度在 2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET 前對巴基斯坦領土發動無人機、飛彈或空襲，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 就本市場而言，符合條件的「攻擊」定義為：印度軍方發射的航空炸彈、無人機或飛彈（包括巡弋飛彈或彈道飛彈）擊中巴基斯坦領土（例如，若印度飛彈或無人機擊中巴基斯坦境內的目標，此市場將判定為「是」）。 在抵達巴基斯坦領土前遭攔截的飛彈或無人機，以及地對空飛彈攻擊，均不足以判定為「是」，無論殘骸是否落在巴基斯坦土地上或造成損害。 砲火、小型武器射擊、FPV 或 ATGM 攻擊、地面入侵、海軍砲擊、網路攻擊，或印度地面部隊執行的任何行動，均不符合本市場對攻擊的定義。 判定依據將是可信報導所形成的共識。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。