- 法國會在2026年12月31日前宣布舉行選舉嗎？9¢
France’s next legislative election remains scheduled for no later than June 2029, with any earlier vote requiring presidential dissolution of the National Assembly under Article 12. As of mid-October 2026, President Macron’s second term is nearing its end amid persistent parliamentary fragmentation, repeated no-confidence motions against Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, and stalled budget negotiations. Recent polls show deepening polarization ahead of the April-May 2027 presidential contest, with National Rally and La France Insoumise gaining ground while centrist options lag. Traders price modest near-term probability of a snap call because opposition parties lack unified leverage to force dissolution, fiscal pressures and student unrest have not yet triggered a government collapse, and both the president and leading contenders appear to favor waiting for the presidential cycle to reshape alliances. Key upcoming catalysts include further budget votes and any renewed coalition talks before year-end.
規則
如果下一次法國立法選舉的日期在市場建立後至 2026年12月31日、下午11:59 ET 之間公布，這個市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將以「否」結算。 此市場判定為「是」只需公布選舉日期，並不要求選舉必須在市場期限內實際舉行。 此市場結算的主要依據為法國政府的官方資訊，但也會參考可信報導所形成的共識。
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