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The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Ricardo Ferraço (MDB) holds an 87% implied probability as the Espírito Santo gubernatorial frontrunner due to his incumbency since assuming office in April 2026 following Renato Casagrande’s resignation, combined with a broad coalition spanning MDB, PP, União, and other parties. Recent July 2026 polling by Real Time Big Data showed Ferraço at 41% in first-round scenarios against Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) at 30%, with Ferraço also prevailing in projected runoffs by double-digit margins amid 76% approval ratings. Pazolini, the leading challenger and former Vitória mayor, registers an 11% probability reflecting consistent but distant second-place finishes. Five candidates are registered for the October 4 first round, yet the market’s low odds on remaining contenders align with their marginal polling shares and limited statewide visibility.