- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月8日至9月15日期間發佈180至199則推文嗎？100¢100%
- 埃隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月8日至9月15日期間發佈200至219條推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月8日至9月15日期間發佈160到179則推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月8日至9月15日期間發佈220到239條推文嗎？0¢0%
- 埃隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月8日至9月15日期間發佈140至159條推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月8日至9月15日期間發表120至139條推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月8日至9月15日期間發佈100至119則推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月8日至9月15日期間發佈240到259則推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月8日至9月15日期間發佈80至99條推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月8日至9月15日期間發佈260至279條推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克在2026年9月8日至9月15日期間將發布280至299則推文嗎？0¢0%
- 埃隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月8日至9月15日期間發佈300-319則推文嗎？0¢0%
Elon Musk’s posting pace on X during the September 8–15 window settled at 186 posts, locking the 180-199 bracket at 100% implied probability. Traders converged on this outcome because recent weekly totals have clustered in the low-to-mid 100s to low 200s during periods of steady commentary on Tesla updates, platform developments, and political topics, without the extreme spikes or multi-day lulls seen in other 2026 brackets. A daily rhythm near 25–30 posts aligned closely with observed patterns in quieter stretches, and live trackers confirmed the count stayed within the narrow band as the period closed. An upset would have required either a sharp acceleration from breaking news or a near-total slowdown, neither of which occurred.
規則
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 8 12:00 PM ET to September 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.