- 伊隆·馬斯克於2026年9月10日至9月12日期間會發佈40至64則推文嗎？100¢100%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月10日至9月12日期間發布少於40則推文嗎？0¢0%
- 馬斯克會在2026年9月10日至9月12日期間發佈65至89條推文嗎？0¢0%
- 埃隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月10日至9月12日期間發佈90至114條推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月10日至9月12日之間發佈115-139條推文嗎？0¢0%
- 馬斯克會在2026年9月10日至9月12日期間發佈140至164條推文嗎？0¢0%
- 埃隆·馬斯克在2026年9月10日至9月12日期間會發佈165至189條推文嗎？0¢0%
- 埃隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月10日至9月12日期間發佈190至214則推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在2026年9月10日至9月12日期間發佈215到239條推文嗎？0¢0%
- 伊隆·馬斯克會在 2026 年 9 月 10 日到 9 月 12 日發佈超過 240 則推文嗎？0¢0%
Traders see the 40-64 tweet range as the overwhelming favorite because it aligns with Elon Musk’s established X activity patterns, where he typically posts 13–21 times per day absent major breaking events. His consistent engagement with followers, replies, and commentary on tech, politics, and SpaceX updates has produced similar three-day totals in recent periods, giving the market strong historical grounding. An upset into higher brackets would require an unusually intense news cycle, product launch, or personal development that dramatically increases his output, while lower totals could occur only if he steps back for travel, meetings, or platform moderation—scenarios traders currently assign minimal probability given his routine pace.
規則
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.