- Dan J. Sullivan 會在 1月31日 前遭到起訴嗎？8¢8%
The Justice Department’s accelerated criminal probe into allegations that Democratic operatives recruited Daniel J. Sullivan to appear on Alaska’s Senate ballot centers on potential voter confusion and conspiracy claims tied to the 2026 race against incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democratic nominee Mary Peltola. Multiple grand jury subpoenas and records demands have issued since late October following public reporting on campaign involvement, with federal prosecutors also seeking to preserve ballots for possible review. No charges have been filed against any party, including the candidate himself, who has denied any deceptive intent. Given the procedural timelines for indictments in election-related matters, the absence of imminent action against Sullivan, and the investigation’s primary focus on recruitment efforts, trader consensus assigns an 84.5% probability that he will not face charges by January 31.
規則
如果在市場建立至 2027年1月31日、下午11:59 ET 之間，美國任何聯邦或州司法管轄區正式起訴阿拉斯加州參議員候選人 Daniel J. Sullivan，或以其他方式宣布對其提出刑事起訴，本市場將結算為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 就本市場而言，哥倫比亞特區以及任何州的任何郡、市或其他次級行政區均納入「州」的定義。 本市場的主要判定依據為美國政府來源的官方資訊；不過，也會參考可信報導的廣泛共識。
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