- 民主黨會贏得眾議院中屬於 CA-01 的席位嗎？94¢
- 共和黨會贏得 CA-01 的眾議院席位嗎？5¢
Redistricting through Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st Congressional District westward to incorporate Democratic-leaning areas such as Santa Rosa and parts of Sonoma County, transforming it from a solidly Republican seat under prior lines into one rated solid Democrat by the Cook Political Report. This change followed Republican James Gallagher’s June 2026 special election victory under the old boundaries and his narrow 42.1%–41.8% primary win over Democrat Mike McGuire for the full term. Recent candidate forums have highlighted policy contrasts on taxes, water infrastructure, health care, and foreign policy, yet trader consensus reflected in the 92.7% implied probability for McGuire aligns with the district’s new partisan composition and historical base rates for incumbents in altered maps. Late-breaking developments such as turnout surges, scandals, or national events could still alter the result before the November 3 general election.
規則
本市場將根據在 2026 年期中選舉中贏得美國眾議院 CA-01 國會選區席次的候選人所屬政黨進行結算。期中選舉將於 2026年11月3日 舉行。 候選人的政黨歸屬，將以該候選人在本市場的結算資訊來源明確判定 2026 年所有眾議院選舉結果時，在選票上列明或以其他方式可確認的政黨隸屬關係為準。若候選人的選票上未列明其屬於民主黨或共和黨，則將依據本市場判定來源對所有眾議院選舉作出最終判定時，該候選人最近一次表示有意加入其黨團會議的政黨，將其視為該黨的成員。 本市場將根據可信報導所形成共識指出的選舉結果結算。如有任何歧義，本市場將僅依據美國政府公布的官方結果判定，具體而言，以聯邦選舉委員會（https://www.fec.gov/）公布的結果為準。
機器翻譯。如有爭議，以原文為準。