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A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Flávio Bolsonaro holds overwhelming market consensus for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polling consistently places him well ahead of all other non-Lula candidates. Lula leads first-round surveys at 38–41 percent, while Flávio registers 31–36 percent—more than six times the support shown for the next right-wing contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado or Renan Santos. Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son as the Liberal Party nominee has consolidated the right-wing vote behind Flávio, who is viewed as the clearest continuation of the family’s political project following Jair’s ineligibility and imprisonment. Minor polling dips tied to earlier family tensions or funding controversies have not altered this hierarchy, and competing right-wing figures remain in single digits. With the first round weeks away and no major new entrants or scandals shifting the field, trader pricing reflects the durable separation between Flávio and the remainder of the field.