- 2027 年前會有任何國家退出歐盟嗎？2¢
Trader consensus on no EU member state withdrawing before 2027 reflects the absence of any active Article 50 triggers, scheduled referendums, or credible exit campaigns with sufficient momentum. Eurosceptic parties in major states such as Germany’s AfD have recently shifted emphasis from immediate departure toward internal reforms and opt-outs, while polling in countries like Austria shows rising support for continued membership. The short remaining timeline precludes the multi-year constitutional, negotiation, and ratification processes seen in prior cases. Budget disputes, enlargement debates, and national elections may intensify tensions, yet these developments center on influence within the bloc rather than departure. A sudden crisis-driven referendum or major party reversal in a key capital remains the primary low-probability pathway that could alter the outcome.
規則
若任何歐洲聯盟（EU）成員國在2026年12月31日 下午11:59 ET前退出EU，此市場將判定為「是」。否則，此市場將判定為「否」。 EU成員國一旦正式啟動退出程序及／或正式通知歐洲理事會其退出意向，即視為已退出，無論退出是否在此市場的時間範圍結束後才完成。 本市場的主要判定依據為歐洲聯盟及 EU 成員國的官方資訊；但也可採用可信報導所形成的共識。
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