- 在阿爾伯塔獨立公投中，「留在加拿大」的得票率是否會至少達到80%？<1¢
- 「留在加拿大」在亞伯達獨立公投中會以60–80%的得票率勝出嗎？19¢
- 「留在加拿大」在亞伯塔獨立公投中是否會以40–60%的得票率獲勝？63¢
- 「留任」會以20-40%的優勢贏得亞伯達獨立公投嗎？12¢
- 在亞伯達獨立公投中，「留任」贏的幅度會少於20%嗎？4¢
- 「離開」會在艾伯塔省獨立公投中勝出嗎？<1¢
Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Remain" and "Leave" on Question 10. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Remain" and "Leave". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast on Question 10. If "Leave" receives more valid votes than "Remain", this market will resolve to "Leave wins". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Remain" and "Leave" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Remain <20%". This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Alberta, including Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.