- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?12¢12 %
US-Iran tensions remain centered on limited airstrikes and naval actions in the Strait of Hormuz rather than any ground offensive aimed at territorial control. As of early November 2026, the Trump administration conducted targeted strikes on Iranian surface-to-air assets days after the midterm elections while simultaneously advancing Qatari-mediated talks and Vice President Vance’s outreach for a negotiated settlement on sanctions relief, asset releases, and waterway access. Both sides have signaled interest in pausing escalation, with military preparations focused on defensive postures and short-duration options instead of sustained invasion forces. The brief window until December 31 leaves little time for the scale of mobilization required for occupation, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% implied probability on No.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.