- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?98¢98 %
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?2¢2 %
- Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will David Leslie win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?<1¢<1 %
3 %97,8 %Mary Peltola (D)Volym 4,3 mn $
3 %2,4 %Sen. Dan Sullivan (R)Volym 2,6 mn $
Mary Peltola holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the Alaska Senate seat due to her narrow but consistent edge in first-choice votes as counting nears 75 percent, combined with ranked-choice voting dynamics that could reallocate preferences from minor candidates. Outstanding ballots from remote areas and early voting trends are viewed as likely to widen her margin before the November 18 tabulation. The presence of a similarly named independent candidate and another Republican has fragmented opposition support in ways that traders assess as structurally advantageous to Peltola under RCV rules. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include unexpectedly strong late returns favoring the incumbent or court rulings on ballot eligibility and certification that alter the final pool of counted votes.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.