- Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?98¢98 %
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?1¢1 %
- Will Avigdor Lieberman receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Yair Lapid receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Benny Gantz receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Yossi Cohen receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Yair Golan receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Itamar Ben Gvir receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Gideon Sa’ar receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Yariv Levin receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Moshe Feiglin receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?<1¢<1 %
1 %98,5 %Gadi EizenkotVolym 396 tn $
2 %1 %Benjamin NetanyahuVolym 450,5 tn $
0,5 %Avigdor LiebermanVolym 56,6 tn $
Gadi Eisenkot holds a commanding lead in the market for receiving the first mandate to form Israel's next government following the October 27, 2026 Knesset election. Consultations with President Isaac Herzog produced 67 recommendations for the Yashar leader versus 46 for Benjamin Netanyahu, driven by unified backing from the Jewish opposition bloc and key endorsements from Arab-led parties including the Joint List and Ra'am. The election produced a fragmented result under proportional representation, with Netanyahu's bloc at roughly 53 seats and Eisenkot's at 48, leaving Arab parties as potential kingmakers despite their separate 19-seat total. While the mandate grants 28 days to assemble a majority coalition, Eisenkot's position could shift if negotiations stall over coalition partners or if scheduled Knesset proceedings alter the balance.
Regler
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.